Friday April 23 Severe Threat

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Friday April 23 Severe Threat

Post  KSPR Kevin Lighty on Sun Apr 18, 2010 7:40 pm

Just thought I would start off this topic since it is the next actual chance for storms, some of which may be severe. We will have to continue to watch and see how it all plays out. For the first time in awhile some decent mositure return from the gulf combined with some instability and a strong jet overhead may yield some strong storms on Friday. Your thoughts, feelings, and forecasts. Lets hear them all!!!

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Severe weather

Post  Lughi on Sun Apr 18, 2010 10:54 pm

I know it is going to happen, I am both excited and nervous about the storms. I have a ham radio and wifi to look at radar so I am ready this year. bounce

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weather radio

Post  Lughi on Sun Apr 18, 2010 10:59 pm

Almost forgot I have a weather radio too thanks again Kevin Very Happy

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Re: Friday April 23 Severe Threat

Post  Stormman on Mon Apr 19, 2010 3:03 pm

The weather looks to be getting back on track with April again with the upper wind pattern becoming more active with Western troughs. One of particular interest would have to be Friday into Friday night. The 12z GFS is painting a broad negative tilt trough between 18z and 00z Friday of this week, below is a graphic depicting this feature.

It's the first decent shot at severe weather in a while so I'm beginning to become more relieved especially if we have this type of instability to work with in a strongly sheared environment.

The one thing that has been lacking for a while now is the return of rich Gulf moisture, I think this storm is gonna start tapping into some of that deeper moisture not only on the surface but mid level moisture will be on the rise as well, the last graphic I wanted to show is the 2m Dew Points.

Not sure just yet what modes to expect, but if this stays on the way it looks right now all types of severe storms can be expected.

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Re: Friday April 23 Severe Threat

Post  Gary_Monett on Mon Apr 19, 2010 7:16 pm

NWS in Tulsa seems to be more concerned about the situation at this time than does Springfield. The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has backed off a a little bit on the upcoming setup. Still a few days out from seeing things will come together. Time will tell!
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Re: Friday April 23 Severe Threat

Post  Stormman on Mon Apr 19, 2010 9:57 pm

Details will become better known over the next few days, the NWS is Tulsa and In Wichita are both a little concerned about this upcoming event. Here in SGF the NWS is waiting to see whether or not models begin agreeing on evolution of the storm and overall timing. The 18z issuance of the GFS was a little toned down with instability not as high as previously forecasted, my guess would be that by tomorrow the NAM and the GFS will be depicting a high CAPE high shear environment. Time will tell I guess.

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Re: Friday April 23 Severe Threat

Post  KSPR Kevin Lighty on Mon Apr 19, 2010 10:02 pm

FYI GFS is horrible with forecasting CAPE 3+ days out.

NAM will definitely be a better sign of what we could be dealing with in regards to mesoscale features.

Will have to definitely keep an eye on things.
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Re: Friday April 23 Severe Threat

Post  weatherplus on Mon Apr 19, 2010 10:02 pm

I am hoping for severe weather in SW MO. It just seems like Kansas and Oklahoma get all of the severe weather and then it falls apart once it hits the MO border. The storm may be late enough where it is after dark and we lose the daylight heating. I am thinking it wont be much, but hope I am surprised with a outbreak!!

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Re: Friday April 23 Severe Threat

Post  Gary_Monett on Tue Apr 20, 2010 6:27 am

Things this morning look more favorable for a severe weather event. SPC has even highlighted SW MO as a potential area for widespread severe weather on Friday. Looks like all types of severe weather appear possible at this time, but that will be fine tuned as the event draws closer.
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Re: Friday April 23 Severe Threat

Post  Stormman on Tue Apr 20, 2010 8:33 pm


Thought I would show this graphic, too early yet to get all hyped up but I thought it was interesting. This graphic depicts significant tornado ingredients, or in other words the ingredients that will be necessary to produce strong tornadoes. The SREF uses probability ensamble members to forecast areas of severe weather events and other significant weather events such as snow storms or flooding rain events. Though a little early yet to know exactly what modes of severe weather to expect Friday evening into early Saturday morning, I am beginning to agree with the SREF. The 18z NAM is still showing a strong upper trough carving out through the Central and Southern Plains.

And instability.

Someone as it appears now, not sure yet who, but someone looks to be dealing with a pretty decent shot at a significant severe weather event. As it stands now it does appear that all modes can be expected, details will become better known over the couple of days.
Stay Tuned...

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Re: Friday April 23 Severe Threat

Post  Stormman on Tue Apr 20, 2010 9:32 pm

Who all is gonna be out chasing this Friday? I'll be taking my '98 Honda passport out along with my buddies truck. Hoping mother nature has something to show! Very Happy

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Re: Friday April 23 Severe Threat

Post  Mindi on Tue Apr 20, 2010 9:38 pm

I will most definitely have my eyes to the sky!
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Re: Friday April 23 Severe Threat

Post  Gary_Monett on Wed Apr 21, 2010 6:39 am

I leave to go out of town to Columbia tomorrow morning and will be gone through late Saturday evening. It definitely looks like a good potential of severe weather. I think a couple of more model runs are needed before we can define the threat better, but I am not disagreeing with what you mention about tornadoes Stormman. That being said, the best chances for supercells at this time to me looks further south... say Ft. Smith and Poteau, OK and south.
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Re: Friday April 23 Severe Threat

Post  weatherplus on Wed Apr 21, 2010 7:56 pm

Per NWS: THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM SYSTEM
MOVES FROM THE WESTERN U.S. INTO THE PLAINS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE.

Bring it on!!!

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Re: Friday April 23 Severe Threat

Post  Stormman on Wed Apr 21, 2010 8:41 pm

Again wanted to show what the latest SREF significant tornado parameters is gonna setup.

Still showing at least a 30% chance for a significant tornado in the Southern part of our viewing area, and at least a 20% for the entire outlook area. 18z NAM still showing a STRONG upper trough, my current thinking is that this trough will finally interact with the somewhat modest instability that will be in place, and at least moderate wind shear. Below is a look at the 300mb jet winds at 00z Friday evening.

And 0-3km cape.

It does appear that all the thermodynamics will come together for a significant severe weather event with all modes of severe weather possible. The tornado threat IMO will be higher South and West of SGF towards NE Ok and into NE TX. The forecast still has to be fine tuned so things can still change. I will be chasing these storms in NE OK Friday evening and then again "maybe" Saturday evening across the Eastern portions of the Ozarks.

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Re: Friday April 23 Severe Threat

Post  Gary_Monett on Thu Apr 22, 2010 4:55 pm

Good evening everyone from Columbia!

It definitely looks like severe weather looks likely for tomorrow across the region. A concern I do have is that the storms to the south may try to rob moisture away from our area. This could limit the severe risk. Regardless, I do believe that a severe weather event will be nearby (if not including) the Ozarks... especially NW Arkansas. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats, but tornadoes can't be ruled out as well.

Everyone should stay alert tomorrow.
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Re: Friday April 23 Severe Threat

Post  Mindi on Thu Apr 22, 2010 6:41 pm

Thanks for the update Gary. I agree that it does look to be bad tomorrow. I am anxious to see what tomorrow mornings models show.
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Re: Friday April 23 Severe Threat

Post  Bowtie on Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:46 am

Well, it's looking very likely that all of the KSPR viewing area will have a significant episode of severe thunderstorms this Friday afternoon and evening. I'm going to guess that the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center will issue a Tornado Watch at any time between 1pm and 4pm for the entire KSPR viewing area.

*NOTE*: For those of you who have a police scanner and monitor the 145.490 Amateur Ham repeater during severe weather events, there will likely be an all-hazards weather briefing conducted by SKYWARN on that frequency at any time between 11am and 1pm. For those of you with a Ham radio you may want to tune in.

Here is the just released updated Hazardous Weather Outlook:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
512 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-241200-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
512 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...SIGNIFICANT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

SIGNIFICANT HAIL RISK.
ELEVATED TORNADO...THUNDERSTORM WIND AND LIGHTNING RISK.
LIMITED FLOODING RISK.

DISCUSSION:

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. INTO THE PLAINS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE AS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALL MODES
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES. THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN COULD PRODUCED LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
TRAIN.

AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 71 WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL OF
ISOLATED TORNADO DEVELOPMENT WITH THE INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE OZARKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL THEN SHIFT TO
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE BEST
WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHIFTS TOWARDS THIS REGION.

Next, here is the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook graphics and text for our area issued by the SPC:
Categorical:

Tornado Probabilities:

Hail Probabilities:

Wind Probabilities:

Text:
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE ARKLATEX AND
LOWER MS VALLEY...ARCING NORTHWESTWARD INTO NEB....

...NEB/KS/MO THIS AFTERNOON...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NEB INTO EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO.
SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING AND DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT WILL HELP TO
ERODE CAP AND LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ORIENTATION OF DEEP-SHEAR VECTOR NORMAL TO THE
BOUNDARY SUGGEST THE DISCRETE INITIATION IS LIKELY...WITH SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES TODAY.
OTHERWISE...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING.
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Re: Friday April 23 Severe Threat

Post  harm63 on Fri Apr 23, 2010 2:58 pm

I've been watching the radar for about an hour now... and I am agreeing with NWS opinion on their latest discussion... looks like storms are starting to fire with little/no cap. Looks like we are starting in on the storms for today. Bring 'em on Cool

From the NWS:

.DISCUSSION...

...OVERVIEW...
MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE WITH THUNDERSTORMS
IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG STORM SYSTEM
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION.

...CURRENTLY...
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA
AS MLCAPES BETWEEN 700-1200 J/KG HAVE DEVELOPED WITH LITTLE OR NO
REMAINING CAP IN PLACE. SURFACE LOW STILL LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST SOUTHEAST DOWN
THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI. DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S. BACK EDGE OF MOISTURE AXIS WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF WICHITA
TO CONCORDIA KANSAS LINE.

...FORECAST...
STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTING EAST INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. EXPECTING
CURRENT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
WITH BEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A
BRANSON TO ROLLA LINE. ADDITIONAL LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A DRY LINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHICH WOULD PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA AFTER
00Z. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST.
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Re: Friday April 23 Severe Threat

Post  weatherplus on Fri Apr 23, 2010 9:07 pm

Overall a dud in my opinion for storms in SW MO. Yeah there was some penny to nickel to quarter size hail, but that about it. I had a feeling that the big storms to the south would rob some of the moisture from this area and it seemed like the morning showers and clouds kept us pretty stable. On to the next possible severe weather event 1 week from now....

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Re: Friday April 23 Severe Threat

Post  harm63 on Fri Apr 23, 2010 9:44 pm

Man, I'm telling ya... I don't think I'm ever going to get my hopes up for any severe storms around here anymore. They just don't make 'em like they used to.... scratch
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Re: Friday April 23 Severe Threat

Post  KSPR Kevin Lighty on Sat Apr 24, 2010 9:02 am

Haha, yea we definitely lacked wind shear during Friday to get any storms to do anything. That was the one and only key component missing all day.

Well, May is just around the corner. I guess we can see what it was to bring us.
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