Flooding Likely This Spring

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Flooding Likely This Spring

Post  KSPR Kevin Lighty on Sun Mar 07, 2010 2:15 pm

THIS UPDATED SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK IS FOR THE
OSAGE...MARMATON...GASCONADE...SPRING...ELK...WHITE...JAMES AND
JACKS FORK RIVER BASINS ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS.

NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME OVER THE LARGER RIVER
BASINS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

BASED ON ABOVE AVERAGE SOIL MOISTURE AND STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...AND
EXPECTED RAINFALL BEING NEAR NORMAL DURING THE SPRING...THERE IS AN
AVERAGE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OVER THE SPRING AND ELK RIVER BASINS
IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...A NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ALONG THE JAMES...WHITE AND JACKS
FORK RIVERS...AND AN ABOVE AVERAGE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OVER THE
OSAGE...MARMATON AND GASCONADE RIVER BASINS.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA...WITH NO SNOW ON THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. SPRING
FLOODING IS LIKELY IF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENTS OCCUR. LONG
LEAD-TIME OUTLOOKS FOR THESE EVENTS ARE NOT POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...AHPS
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS AND
INDICATE THAT MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IS LIKELY WITH NORMAL
OCCURRENCES OF HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS.

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS OF ALL RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS...DUE MAINLY TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
THAT THE BASINS RECEIVED THIS WINTER.

PERCENT OF AVAILABLE FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE FOR THE WHITE RIVER
BASIN RESERVOIRS ARE GIVEN BELOW.

RESERVOIR 2/18/10 3/4/10
BEAVER LAKE 85% 99%
TABLE ROCK LAKE 98% 98%
BULL SHOALS LAKE 97% 100%
NORFORK LAKE 98% 100%

THE 30-DAY AND 90-DAY METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOKS INDICATE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA.

THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATED NO DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER
THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT
OUTLOOK VALID THROUGH MAY INDICATES THAT NO DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS.

PROJECTIONS OF RIVER STAGES AND RESERVOIR LEVELS ARE BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVED OR ESTIMATED STATES OF STREAMFLOW...SOIL
MOISTURE...AND SNOW PACK. THESE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE COUPLED
WITH FUTURE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE PATTERNS AND ANTICIPATED
OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC CHANGES...SUCH AS RESERVOIR RELEASES...TO
COMPILE THE OUTLOOK. USERS OF THIS PRODUCTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
CONTACT THEIR NEAREST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE FOR
CONTINUED UPDATES OF METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WHICH CAN HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON FLOOD PLANNING AND FLOOD MITIGATION
ACTIVITIES.
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KSPR Kevin Lighty

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Re: Flooding Likely This Spring

Post  weatherplus on Sun Mar 07, 2010 7:47 pm

Heard to think of flooding when we have been recently dry lately. I can't remember the last big rain this area has got. I guess the flooding will come from the north after the snow melts.

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Re: Flooding Likely This Spring

Post  kz1899 on Mon Mar 08, 2010 1:34 pm

We have only been dry for about 2 weeks. Look how many months this past year have we been way over average on rain. Our soil is still very moist, even muddy in places still, it wont take much to start flooding.

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Re: Flooding Likely This Spring

Post  weatherplus on Mon Mar 08, 2010 7:42 pm

This past year wasn't that overly wet. It was 2 years ago when it was really wet. I am ready for some good rain showers and warmer temps to get the yard growing and green!!

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