Rest of the winter

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Rest of the winter

Post  weloveourhailey on Fri Jan 08, 2010 1:03 pm

I was reviewing the long range charts this morning. We may have seen the last of the winter storms this winter! The rest of this month is going to be "warmer" and the Euro has us warmer through the end of February! Im predicting an earlier spring this year.

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Re: Rest of the winter

Post  NixaDorothy on Sun Jan 10, 2010 1:17 am

We are only in the second week of January. I would not predict just yet that our winter is over. I think we could still see a couple of more decent storms. I just hope they are snow and not ice.

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Re: Rest of the winter

Post  weloveourhailey on Sun Jan 10, 2010 9:51 am

I was looking at the long range charts this morning. We could actually see springtime storms at the end of Jan!! And highs in the 50's!!! We should see springtime flowers soon!

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Re: Rest of the winter

Post  Gary_Monett on Sun Jan 10, 2010 1:30 pm

I would love to know how you have access to long range weather charts that go out as far as you claim. Smile I am not aware of any.
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Re: Rest of the winter

Post  KSPR Kevin Lighty on Sun Jan 10, 2010 2:58 pm

I would agree about the next several weeks. This prolonged cold snap is ending and I don't see anything too bad in the near future. While we are NOT out of the woods winter weather wise yet, the rest of January looks to be quite a bit warmer. Now I do see something of interest in a few weeks. I will post it in the upcoming storms.
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Re: Rest of the winter

Post  WeatherWarriorJesselee on Mon Jan 11, 2010 7:30 pm

Ok Kev, when you say "Something of interest" its obviously not snow...because snow does not interest you.

Severe weather perhaps? Something of the cyclonic activity? Cool
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Re: Rest of the winter

Post  snowman on Mon Jan 11, 2010 11:20 pm

I am not seeing a warm several week period........That is very interesting to me

I guess what my point is, I do see the thaw, which I still dont think we will be crazy warm but in my opinion it will last maybe 10 days and then back to normal winter.

As far as Feb goes look at the Global CFS model.........Feb looks very cold. By the way I have decleared my possible snow this weekend DOA. Not impossible but most of my model support has left me. I wont believe it if the Euro and Canadian keep trending toward the GFS solution. GFS could be King on this deal

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Winter is not done!!!

Post  skywarn82 on Tue Jan 12, 2010 8:26 pm

The long range models continue to show that winter is not done what i see happening now is the polar jet moving to the north which will dam the cold air to the north and allow it to rebuild again and toward the end of january it will drop back south just in time for a stormy pattern that is setting up so as far as winter being done i dont think so not for awhile just wait and see!!!!

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Rest of Winter

Post  Stormman on Tue Jan 12, 2010 9:41 pm

To say that winter is over is very silly at this point. Long range models do not indicate an early spring. Even though models do indicate a stormy pattern 10 to 12 days out.

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Winter Over? Huh?

Post  Stormsfury on Wed Jan 13, 2010 9:32 pm

Well IMO anybody who chatters about winter being over in mid-Jan has about lost their marbles. In the Ozarks are you kiddin me? The past few yrs have proven we'll be lucky to have any kind of sustained warmth until April. This is just a normal relaxation of a pattern that obviously could not last forever. Will it come back as strong as before? Probably not but we just came thru something pretty extreme. Somebody earlier misquoted the Euro weekly forecasts - the most recent ones call for a return to cold for the central and eastern US during Feb, along with an active wet pattern across much of the eastern and southern states. Not saying they're always right but a lot of indexes are currently pointing that direction. Feb will be rockin' with an active STJ and a cold stage across this area. Get ready my friends!

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Re: Rest of the winter

Post  snowman on Wed Jan 13, 2010 9:45 pm

stormsfury,

I agree with your Feb thoughts......My only concern if you like winter weather events is the storm track will get surpressed to far south for our area. That will be more of a concern toward the end of the month. But I do believe Feb will be colder and stormier after our thaw.

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Rest of Winter

Post  Stormsfury on Wed Jan 13, 2010 11:18 pm

Yeah snowman I am a winter fan and am a bit concerned about our future winter storm tracks. The typical Nino pattern really likes to hit areas to our south and east but at the same time as the polar jet relaxes and begins its retreat to the north so may some of our storm tracks. I know from looking at historical snowfall in this area over the past 50 yrs that there have been many good snowstorms in Feb and March, especially in Nino patterns. We wont get hit by all of them but there will be enough variation to nail us a few times. Whats different about this winter vs the past 2-3 winters is that we had an overpowering northern stream the past few winters which delivered a lot of cold (and ice at times) but not a lot of tropical moisture along with the classical SW US low pressure systems. We've had the powerhouse lows this winter but have either missed them or got just a glancing blow, i.e. Christmas Eve. It seems we've had a modified type of Nino so far this winter but I feel that is about to change come Feb into March, delivering everything from severe wx to snowstorms, with both warm, wet conditions and cold, wet conditions.

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Re: Rest of the winter

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