Thursday April 14

Go down

Thursday April 14

Post  Stormman on Tue Apr 12, 2011 12:10 pm

Our next system is sitting off the Pacific NW and will begin to make progression EWD tomorrow. 12z NAM and 12z GFS depicts a negative tilt H5 trough carving out a 995-998mb sfc low East of the Rockies lee side by Wednesday afternoon, this will turn winds out of the SE and temperatures warming into the low to mid 70s. Both models are in relatively good agreement with strength and timing of the approach of the closed low at H5 portion of the jet pattern. Going with a blend of both models to come up with a first forecast for this event. As mentioned a sfc low should develope in the Lee of the Rockies by Wednesday and prog EWD with the NAM projecting the track through C KS where a DL should take shape along the I-35 corridor. Winds at the sfc will pick up in intensity from the SE driving dews into the mid to upper 50s for much of the viewing area and 60s in extreme W MO into NE OK and SE KS. Taking a look at winds above the sfc and what catches my immediate attention is that the H85 winds backed at 35 to 40kts SELY flow this meaning large counter clockwise curved hodos will be present within the warm sector of this system. The main instability axis however sampled by the GFS and NAM models suggest that the main course of severe weather should remain just West of the outlook area where a blend solution of MLCAPE should reach 1500-2000J/kg. Given the amount of winds changing direction with height 0-3km shr values will more than exceed expectations for a decent severe weather event where values of 300-450m2/s2 are forecasted by 21z by both the GFS and NAM. Given the parameters a "limited-area" tornado outbreak appears plausible from ERN OK, SE KS, and extreme W MO.

Stormman

Posts : 85
Join date : 2010-01-06
Age : 29
Location : Springfield,Mo

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Thursday April 14

Post  Stormman on Wed Apr 13, 2011 3:59 pm

Correction to the mention of hodo above, large looped clockwise hodos will be present as there will be immense wind shear within the warm sector.

Stormman

Posts : 85
Join date : 2010-01-06
Age : 29
Location : Springfield,Mo

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Thursday April 14

Post  weatherplus on Sun Apr 17, 2011 9:55 pm

What you think for Tuesday April 19th?? Will it be another severe weather bust for SW MO?? Seems like lately been getting alot of hype over storms for our area and then they never materialize. Seeing what has happen in other areas, it be good if nothing happens.

weatherplus

Posts : 106
Join date : 2010-01-26

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Thursday April 14

Post  Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum