Sunday/Monday Severe wx

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Sunday/Monday Severe wx

Post  Stormman on Thu Mar 31, 2011 9:33 pm

It is that time of year when severe weather events become more and more common, starting this Sunday with the first significant upper waves to bring the chance of severe storms to the C and SRN Plains. At this time latest guidance suggests that a potent trough will carve it's way through the mid section of the CONUS, ahead of this feature will begin the process of a nice warm up for the weekend with highs in the mid to upper 60s by Saturday. With these higher temperatures will also be a significant increase in moisture not only at the surface but within the lower levels of the atmosphere via 925mb-850mb. A strong surface cyclone will prog slowly EWD through the day Sunday with a trailing DL mixing E through the day, ahead of this boundary gusty SLY winds will pose somewhat of a heightend fire danager through the day, but will also be responsible for ushering in abundant maritime airmass with dew points climbing into the mid to upper 60s just off to the W of the viewing area. It should be noted that there will be an immense amount of lift associated with this system with LIs along and ahead of the DL reaching -6 to -8, given the amount of moisture in place this will lead to an enhanced area of instability where MLCAPE values will exceed 3000J/kg. In a direct equation driven from the amount of instability there is also whats called an (ENERGY HELICITY INDEX) EHI... Current NAM depicting 0-3km EHI values anywhere from 5-7J/kg, there will also be decent directional shear associated with this system where current indications are that 0-3km shr values will range from 300 to as high as 800+ along the WF boundary, all these ingredients are necessary for a significant severe weather episode, there is just one thing holding me back from going all out and saying "outbreak" and that is a warm inhibiting layer aloft known in short as the CAP. Should the CAP be broken supercell thunderstorms will be likely ahead of the DL as it mixes EWD, the severe weather threat would include all modes with tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail all possible. It's still a developing situation and will continued to be monitored closely as time progresses.

Stormman

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