November 24th & 25th (Thanksgiving holiday)

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November 24th & 25th (Thanksgiving holiday)

Post  Mindi on Wed Nov 24, 2010 1:30 pm

Looks like things are coming together for a decent svr wx outbreak today. With freezing rain in behind this. Any other thoughts?

Everyone please be safe as you travel to and from your Thanksgiving get togethers!!
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Mindi

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What NWS is saying...

Post  harm63 on Wed Nov 24, 2010 2:29 pm

Here's a part of what NWS is stating regarding this storm system:

MASSIVE CHANGES IN THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL TAKE
PLACE AS THAT WARM FRONT QUICKLY SURGES NORTH OF THE AREA. SEE NO
REASON WHY DEW POINTS WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 60S...WITH
MID 60S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS
QUICK MODIFICATION TO THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
WHAT COULD BE AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF SUN IS EXPECTED TODAY...WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE AND PERHAPS UPPER 60S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN MLCAPES IN THE 700 TO 1200 J/KG RANGE...OR EVEN HIGHER
IF MID 60 DEW POINTS CAN MAKE IT IN HERE.

THE BIG QUESTION THEN BECOMES CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS. AS THAT SURFACE
LOW PULLS EAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR...A POWERFUL COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEAST. BEFORE THAT
HAPPENS...SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A BAND OF
INCREASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR
FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. IF THIS
FEATURE MATERIALIZES...THIS COULD PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR STORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

GIVEN THE EXTREME SHEAR AND EXPECTED STORM MOTIONS...ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOPED ON THIS FEATURE WOULD LIKELY BE SUPERCELLS. OTHER
INITIATION WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE ALONG THAT ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
IF STORMS CAN GET GOING EARLY ENOUGH ALONG THE FRONT...SUPERCELLS
MAY ALSO BE FAVORED AS STORM MOTIONS WOULD TEND TO KEEP THE FRONT
FROM UNDERCUTTING THEM. ONCE THE FRONT BEGINS TO FURTHER
ACCELERATE...CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME LINEAR...WITH
STORMS SWEEPING ACROSS THE OZARKS IN QUICK FASHION. GIVEN A
STRONGLY VEERED LOW LEVEL JET...LARGE TURNING HODOGRAPHS WILL
YIELD A TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL WILL ALSO BE THREATS...WITH HAIL MAINLY CONFINED TO
SUPERCELLS.
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